Micah's Read of the Week, Vol. 116
The Texas Politics Edition No One Asked For, plus a hilarious New Yorker cartoon!
Hello, and welcome to Micah’s Read of the Week.
This is a newsletter filled with things Micah Wiener finds interesting. Check out the archive of previous newsletters here.
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Let’s start with the obvious, I don’t expect today’s newsletter will impact the way anyone reading it will vote. Early voting has started and there’s a lot of interesting writing to share. That’s why we’re doing this. If you enjoy it, please let me know in the comments and share with a friend. If you hate it, check back next week when Recipe Corner returns. Ok? Great. Thanks,
M
Minority Rule: How 3 Percent of Texans Call the Shots for the Rest of Us
Statewide officials and legislators are far to the right of most Texans. Why? Low primary-election turnout and an anemic Democratic party.
OK, we’ll start with this fundamental truth: our politicians serve their voters. And their donors. They aren’t incentivized to serve the greater good of the entire state. This story explains why.
Texas is home to around 30 million people, including 22 million eligible voters—17 million of whom are actually registered to vote. Yet only about 2 million typically turn out for Republican primary elections. (One to two million typically vote in Democratic primaries.) That means that a candidate such as Governor Greg Abbott or Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick needs the support of only a million or so primary voters, representing just 3 percent of all Texans, to win the Republican nomination. Since the Republican nominee has gone on to win every statewide general election for the past 24 years, it is this tiny slice of the electorate—disproportionately old, disproportionately white, disproportionately affluent, and disproportionately rural—that, in effect, selects our leaders.
Check this chart:
As a result of gerrymandering, few legislators have to worry about the general election. Their only vulnerability comes during the spring primary, in which a small number of voters choose their parties’ nominees. Primary elections are all about ideological purity, about appealing to hard-core activists. Moderation is not a quality in high demand.
“The Republican primary in Texas is among the most consequential elections on earth, because roughly thirty million Americans live directly with the consequences,” said Scott Braddock, editor of the Quorum Report, an influential state politics newsletter. “It’s the Republican primary that creates the mandates under which our officeholders operate.”
It is impossible to minimize the impact that gerrymandering in redistricting plays in our political process.
To maximize the number of safe Republican seats, the mapmakers had carved up Sugar Land, a city of 111,000, into three state House districts, two state Senate districts, and two congressional districts.
During her thirteen years in the Legislature, Republican Joan Huffman’s suburban district has steadily become more centrist. In 2020 it voted for Biden by five points. But rather than changing her politics, Huffman simply changed her constituents. Last year, the Senate redistricting committee, chaired by Huffman, redrew her district, adding rural, deep-red Wharton and Colorado Counties while excising the increasingly blue Houston neighborhoods of Bellaire and West University Place. Her new district would have voted for Trump by seventeen points. After running unopposed in this year’s Republican primary, Huffman is favored to easily win the general election this month.
By creating safely red and blue districts, the process reduces incentives for politicians of both parties to appeal to moderate voters.
Instead, candidates are beholden mainly to the small cadre of voters who reliably turn out for primary elections. And according to multiple nonpartisan public opinion polls, the policy preferences of these voters are very different from those of most Texans.
Take the issue of abortion. A February poll conducted by the University of Texas at Austin’s Texas Politics Project (TPP) found that 59 percent of the state’s Republican primary voters want a total abortion ban, compared with 53 percent of all Republicans and just 34 percent of all Texans registered to vote. When it comes to gun rights, the poll found that 64 percent of Republican primary voters favor keeping current firearm policies in place, compared with 57 percent of all Republicans and 34 percent of all Texans. Three-quarters of Texas Republican primary voters say President Biden did not win the 2020 election legitimately, compared with 67 percent of all Republicans and 36 percent of all Texans.
Most Texans hold views that could be characterized as centrist—neither right-wing nor left-wing.
A TPP poll released in July found that 80 percent of Texans believe that abortion should be legal in cases of rape, 78 percent believe that it should be legal in cases of incest, and 69 percent believe that it should be legal if there’s a “strong chance of a serious birth defect.” The same poll found that 52 percent of Texans favored stricter gun laws. When asked about specific proposals, 78 percent of Texans supported universal background checks, 55 percent backed a ban on high-capacity magazines, 54 percent were for an assault weapons ban, and 70 percent favored raising the minimum age to buy a firearm.
Unhappy as they may be with the current crop of Republican officeholders, many Texas voters simply can’t bring themselves to vote for a Democrat.
That’s partly because the positions favored by the Democratic base no more align with the views of most Texans than do those of their Republican counterparts.
A TPP study of the 2022 primary electorate found that 90 percent of Democratic primary voters believe that abortion laws should be less strict. When it comes to gun rights, 95 percent of these voters support stricter laws. No wonder the Democratic party keeps nominating candidates who can’t win a general election. “Texas Republicans have moved to the right, but national Democrats have moved to the left,” said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones. “The Democratic party has not presented itself as a credible alternative.”
Even if Democrats wanted to run on a centrist platform, it’s unlikely to result in electoral success.
“Texas Republicans have very skillfully created a caricature of national Democrats, drawing on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren,” Jones told me. “It’s really difficult for Texas Democrats to respond to that because if they repudiate those figures, they can run afoul of their base”—the left-leaning one million state Democrats who decide primary elections.
Almost 60 percent of registered voters say the state is on the wrong track—the highest level in the TPP poll’s history. The GOP has been in charge for a generation, why can’t they pass legislation people like?
“What elected officials fear the most is a strong primary challenge,” said Joe Straus, a lifelong Republican who served as speaker of the Texas House of Representatives from 2009 to 2019. “The only thing [current officeholders] need to worry about is warding off a primary opponent. That doesn’t leave you in a very good place when it comes to governing.”
How two Texas megadonors have turbocharged the state’s far-right shift
OK, so we’ve already established that politicians who can command primary voters wield the power in Texas. Who else? Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks.
Gun owners allowed to carry handguns without permits or training. Parents of transgender children facing investigation by state officials. Women forced to drive hours out-of-state to access abortion.
This is Texas now: While the Lone Star State has long been a bastion of Republican politics, new laws and policies have taken Texas further to the right in recent years than it has been in decades.
Elected officials and political observers in the state say a major factor in the transformation can be traced back to West Texas. Two billionaire oil and fracking magnates from the region, Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks, have quietly bankrolled some of Texas’ most far-right political candidates – helping reshape the state’s Republican Party in their worldview.
Over the last decade, Dunn and his wife, Terri, have contributed more than $18 million to state candidates and political action committees, while Wilks and his wife, Jo Ann, have given more than $11 million, putting them among the top donors in the state.
The beneficiaries of the energy tycoons’ combined spending include the farthest-right members of the legislature and authors of the most high-profile conservative bills passed in recent years, according to a CNN analysis of Texas Ethics Commission data. Dunn and Wilks also hold sway over the state’s legislative agenda through a network of non-profits and advocacy groups that push conservative policy issues.
Ok, so private citizens have the right to support political candidates and ideas. What’s the big deal?
Kel Seliger, a longtime Republican state senator from Amarillo who has clashed with the billionaires, said their influence has made Austin feel a little like Moscow.
“It is a Russian-style oligarchy, pure and simple,” Seliger said. “Really, really wealthy people who are willing to spend a lot of money to get policy made the way they want it – and they get it.”
Gulp. Let’s hope these guys don’t have extreme ideas, right?
Former associates of Dunn and Wilks who spoke to CNN said the billionaires are both especially focused on education issues, and their ultimate goal is to replace public education with private, Christian schooling.
That religious fervor has influenced Dunn’s and Wilks’ political moves. In a meeting with former Texas House Speaker Joe Straus, who is Jewish, Dunn declared that only Christians should hold leadership positions in the chamber, Texas Monthly reported.
“They’re effectively investing their money and they’re moving the needle on policy in Austin,” said Scott Braddock, the editor of Quorum Report, a publication that’s been covering the legislature for decades, referring to Dunn and Wilks. “These are extreme people investing a lot of money in our politics to reshape Texas, such that it matches up with their vision.”
All 18 of the current Republican members of the Texas Senate, and almost half of the Republican members of the Texas House, have taken at least some money from Dunn, Wilks or organizations that they fund. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton have also been major beneficiaries of the billionaires’ spending.
Texas is one of just 10 states that allow individuals to make unlimited contributions to state political candidates, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures – letting Dunn and Wilks have more influence than they might elsewhere in the country.
Know this: Dunn and Wilks don’t just use campaign donations to play a role in state politics. They also fund a network of organizations that have been influential in boosting conservative causes.
Texans for Fiscal Responsibility, a non-profit chaired by Dunn, has released a “Fiscal Responsibility Index” each legislative session grading state lawmakers based on their stances on conservative bills.
“If you don’t show up well on the scorecard, you’re going to have a lot of money spent against you,” Seliger said.
But after Seliger decided he couldn’t support efforts to divert funding from public schools to private school vouchers, Dunn turned on him, he said. In the decade since, he’s found himself repeatedly running against a challenger backed by groups funded by Dunn and Wilks.
“That’s the law of the jungle now in Texas,” Seliger said. “The majority of Republican Senate members just dance to whatever tune Tim Dunn wants to play.”
Texas Leadership
So, other than Dunn and Wilks, who are the most powerful people in Texas Politics. The easy answer: Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Speaker of the House Dade Phelan, and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Phelan is the most moderate of the group and is elected to leadership by the members of his chamber, not statewide election like the other three.
Greg Abbott
Abbott is an interesting figure. He’s been attacked by Democrats as well as primary challengers on the right (financed by Dunn and Wilks). He’s a shrewd politician who seems (to me at least) to be far more driven by polls and popularity than positions or principles. He always speaks like a lawyer (he’s served as a judge on the state’s Supreme Court and as Attorney General) and can be hard to pin down.
One thing all observers agree on is that the man can fundraise (and make use of that money). From In Texas, where money has long dominated politics, Greg Abbott is in a league of his own:
Since Greg Abbott first declared he would run for governor on July 14, 2013, he’s raised the equivalent of $83,793 per day to fund his pursuit of power.
Throughout his political career, Abbott has amassed a mountain of campaign cash unrivaled in Texas. Since 1995, when Abbott made his first bid for statewide office for a seat on the Texas Supreme Court, he has raised $348 million in campaign donations when adjusted for inflation, a sum greater than the cost to build the new Longhorn basketball arena at the University of Texas at Austin.
In his 25 consecutive years in public office, Abbott’s ability to court donors has become central to his political livelihood. His robust campaign treasury has allowed him to scare off potential opponents, bulldoze those who dare to challenge him, whip a Legislature keen on passing his agenda, fund a sprawling grassroots organization and generally reshape Texas politics in his image.
One of Abbott’s greatest strengths is a skill any salesperson can appreciate: the man loves to pick up the phone and make dials.
When it comes time to formally ask for money, he is unflinching.
“He’s an animal on the phone,” said one Republican operative familiar with Abbott’s fundraising, who was not authorized to speak to the media. “No shame, dials for dollars, runs through call lists like crazy.”
Abbott, other sources say, is unbothered not only to make a direct ask, but also to ask for a specific amount.
Abbott’s fundraising can create perception problems. On May 24, when a gunman killed 21 people at an elementary school in Uvalde, the governor learned of the tragedy while in Abilene assessing the state’s wildfire response. He later flew from Abilene, some 210 miles northwest of Austin, to Huntsville, which is more than 150 miles east of the capital, to attend a fundraiser. Abbott portrayed the Huntsville trip as a quick stop “on the way back to Austin”; his staff said that the fundraiser had been previously scheduled and that the governor subsequently postponed events to deal with the tragedy.
So Abbott can raise big money. But fundraising isn’t the only way Abbott has found to build influence. From Greg Abbott ran as a small-government conservative. But the governor’s office now has more power than ever:
Days after being elected Texas governor in 2014, Greg Abbott called a staff meeting to discuss his vision for leading the state.
“Our number-one priority as public servants is to follow the law,” Abbott, who served as Texas attorney general before he was elected, told staffers, according to his autobiography. Adhering to the law was “a way to ignore the pressure of politics, polls, money and lobbying.”
The Republican governor-elect said he rejected the path of Democratic President Barack Obama, whom he had sued 34 times as attorney general. Abbott claimed that Obama had usurped Congress’ power by using executive orders, including one to protect from deportation young people born in other countries and brought to the United States as children.
Now, nearly eight years into his governorship, Abbott’s actions belie his words. He has consolidated power like no Texas governor in recent history, at times circumventing the GOP-controlled state Legislature and overriding local officials.
Abbot was elected in 2014. He’s likely to win re-election, again.
Dan Patrick
You might recognize Patrick from his TV commercials. He’s driving an old truck.
He complains that crime and property taxes are both on the rise and that Democrats are to blame.
Patrick is a conservative radio host and a former TV sportscaster. He’s a transparent hardliner, especially on social issues. He’s also a favorite of Dunn and Wilks.
Patrick hired undocumented immigrants throughout the 1980’s, but was one of the first politicians to use extreme language about Texas’ “illegal invasion” and “third-world diseases” that migrants were bringing to the state. Here’s some more background. He’s been the Lt. Gov. since 2014.
Despite many conservative voices that privately and not-so-privately plan to vote against him, he is likely to win re-election, again.
Ken Paxton
Paxton spoke at a rally in Washington on January 6 and has repeatedly attempted to aid former President Trump’s efforts to overturn the election result. He’s been under indictment since 2015(!) on state securities fraud charges. In October 2020, several high-level assistants in Paxton's office accused him of "bribery, abuse of office, and other crimes." He’s also admitted to an extramarital affair, and it was revealed that his mistress had received a job with a sketchy real estate investor (also under criminal investigation) at Paxton’s recommendation.
Plus, in 2013, he plucked another attorney’s $1,000 Montblanc pen from a bin at a Collin County courthouse.
Here’s an article from yesterday. Texas AG Ken Paxton leans into controversy, brushes off scandals as he vies for reelection. Check the lede.
AUSTIN — Ken Paxton settled in across from two Austin police officers and asked them not to turn on their recorder. The attorney general didn’t want the public to hear what he was about to say.
Over the next hour, Paxton fretted that a campaign donor was threatening to kill him. That this person had tried to hack his car’s GPS system. That Google, which he had sued that day, may track him through his phone.
Paxton insisted he wasn’t imagining the danger.
“I don’t need them tracking me and knowing what I’m doing,” Paxton said about the tech giant in the interview, which he eventually agreed to be recorded, at the special investigations unit of the Austin Police Department. “It sounds paranoid, but I can’t let them — the less they know about me the better.”
“Could it all be a coincidence? Sure. But do I think it is? No,” Paxton said in the recording.
His closest aides had just accused him of serious crimes, prompting some fellow Republicans to question his fitness for office and the FBI to get involved.
He was elected Attorney General in 2014. He’s likely to win re-election, again.
New Yorker Cartoon of the Week
Happy Halloween!
Did Micah practice yoga this weekend?
Nope.
That’s 38 in-person weekend classes in 42 weeks this year. Got a lot of catching up to do.
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