Micah's Read of the Week, Vol. 47
The post-pandemic economy, how Airbnb cleans up its messes, the future of restaurants, gin and tonic talk, and the return of Recipe Corner.
Hello, and welcome to Micah’s Read of the Week.
This is a newsletter filled with things Micah Wiener finds interesting.
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The economy isn’t going back to February 2020. Fundamental shifts have occurred.
As the pandemic fades, the new economic reality comes into view. A new era has arrived of higher housing costs and very different ways of doing business.
Prices are up. Housing is scarce. It takes months longer than normal to get furniture, appliances and numerous parts delivered. And there is a great dislocation between millions of unemployed workers and millions of vacant jobs.
“This is an extraordinarily unusual time. And we really don’t have a template or any experience of a situation like this,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said Wednesday. “We have to be humble about our ability to understand the data.”
There are obvious changes, like the realization that working from home is possible for a sizable part of the labor force and the widespread adoption of online ordering for daily necessities like groceries. These will remain significant parts of work and commerce going forward. Nearly a quarter of workers are likely to work at least a day or two from home each week, the McKinsey Global Institute predicts. And e-commerce, which grew three times faster last year than in prior years, shows few signs of ebbing.
Anyone working in real estate or shopping for a home knows things are crazy. While this seems to be a boon for current homeowners, there could be major trouble on the horizon.
Then there are new dynamics emerging as home prices soar in many parts of the country that are unaccustomed to seeing such extremes. While millions of American homeowners suddenly find themselves “house rich,” the surge in prices is exacerbating the affordability crisis as first-time buyers are getting priced out. Experts fear a rental crisis could be next.
A major concern is what happens now that so many first-time home buyers are being priced out because they can’t afford the hefty down payments. They will have to stay as renters.
“I see this coming year as a year where rents will increase by a surprisingly high amount,” Wachter said. “The affordability problem is going to extend out into more places, especially second and third-tier cities.”
In a worst-case scenario, it could lead to more homelessness, even in such a hot economy. It will almost certainly reinforce the divides between the haves and have nots.
We’ve spent the last two weeks talking about inflation. This issue isn’t going away.
Inflation hit a 13-year high in May, and is widely viewed as the biggest risk that could sink — or at least stall — the recovery’s progress. Although the Fed predicts this will be a short-lived phenomenon, businesses and consumers are already changing some behaviors. Many companies are shrinking the size of how many paper towels are in a package or how much cat food is in a can and still charging the same amount. Home builders are refusing to guarantee prices in fear that material costs will jump further, and investors are suddenly reviving interest in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.
“In the next few months, we’ll have very high inflation numbers. It’s unlikely to persist, but it’s a real risk that it does. That risk is higher now than it has been for decades,” said former Fed official Randall Kroszner. “Will consumers accept it as temporary? We really don’t know. In some ways, this is faith-based monetary policy.”
“faith-based monetary policy.” Gulp.
The Fed is forecasting 3.4 percent inflation this year and 2.1 percent next year. Even if that scenario comes to pass, it might be notable to Americans who have grown accustomed to closer to 1.5 percent inflation in the past decade, especially baby boomers who are retiring and living off fixed incomes.
About the only certainty is that the economy coming out of the pandemic is going to look much different than it did before.
Airbnb Is Spending Millions of Dollars to Make Nightmares Go Away
Last week we discussed the dramatic pandemic-induced changes to the travel industry. This week we take a deep dive into the safety team at Airbnb. When things go horribly wrong during a stay, the company’s secretive safety team jumps in to soothe guests and hosts, help families—and prevent PR disasters.
Airbnb’s business model rests on the idea that strangers can trust one another. If that premise is undermined, it can mean fewer users and more lawsuits, not to mention tighter regulation.
For all its importance, the safety team remains shrouded in secrecy. Insiders call it the “black box.” The job, former team members say, is a nerve-wracking one, balancing the often conflicting interests of guests, hosts, and the company.
The piece details a series of disturbing crimes involving sexual violence, rape, and manslaughter. It gets pretty dark. And it’s important because Airbnb is HUGE. And it’s interesting because Airbnb is not a traditional hospitality company.
Airbnb has grown from a funky couch-surfing alternative to one of the biggest hospitality companies in the world, with 5.6 million listings, more than the number of rooms in the top seven hotel chains combined.
From the outset, Airbnb has encouraged strangers to connect online, exchange money, and then meet in real life, often sleeping under the same roof. It’s somewhere between a tech platform and a hotel operator—unable to disavow responsibility for ensuring its users are safe, as some tech companies might, or to provide security guards and other on-site staff, as a hotel would. What makes trust and safety at Airbnb more complicated than at Apple or Facebook “is that you are dealing with real people in real people’s homes,” says Tara Bunch, Airbnb’s head of global operations.
As Airbnb grew, so did the number of dangerous incidents—everything from hosts hurling suitcases out of windows to concealed cameras, gas leaks, and sexual assaults. Many of the crimes taking place inside short-term rentals listed on its platform and others could have happened in any apartment or hotel room. But in some cases hosts used the platforms to commit them. In one October 2011 incident, an Airbnb host in Barcelona plied two American women who’d booked a stay at his home with alcohol, then raped them. When the women went to the police the next morning, the host threatened to upload videos of the attack to the internet if they didn’t drop the case, according to local media reports. Police searched his apartment and found hundreds of similar photos of other victims. The man received a 12-year prison sentence. Airbnb, which declined to comment about the case for this story, paid the two women an undisclosed amount and banned the host for life.
So who’s in charge of fixing a situation when something goes wrong?
That team is made up of about 100 agents in Dublin, Montreal, Singapore, and other cities. Some have emergency-services or military backgrounds. Team members have the autonomy to spend whatever it takes to make a victim feel supported, including paying for flights, accommodation, food, counseling, health costs, and sexually transmitted disease testing for rape survivors. A former agent who was at Airbnb for five years describes the approach as shooting “the money cannon.”
Agents have had to hire body-fluid crews to clean blood off carpets, arrange for contractors to cover bullet holes in walls, and deal with hosts who discover dismembered human remains. Former safety agents estimate the company handles thousands of allegations of sexual assault every year, many involving rape.
A confidential document seen by Bloomberg Businessweek shows that in recent years, Airbnb spent an average of about $50 million annually on payouts to hosts and guests, including on legal settlements and damage to homes.
That’s a lot of money. But it’s not like the company is making everything right. Following a mass shooting that left five people dead, Airbnb offered to pay for the funerals, but a former employee says that when some of the families sent bills of more than $30,000, the company started haggling.
“They don’t care anymore, because the news cycle has moved on,” Danoff says. “The only thing that really motivates them is the threat or potential threat of bad PR or a nightmare in the press.”
Wild stuff. Just imagine the stories the safety teams at Uber could tell.
Podcast Promo of the Week
Coming this week on Mind of Micah, a long look at the newest trends in the restaurant business: delivery services, ghost kitchens, and virtual brands. It’s a fascinating look at another way COVID-19 changed our world.
Subscribe to Mind of Micah and get each new episode as soon as they are released.
Recipe Corner
As promised, here’s an expanded summertime recipe corner since we omitted it last week.
Let’s talk about gin and tonics
Summer is here and that means it’s time to consider changing your seasonal drink. I really enjoyed The Epicurious Guide to the Very Best Gin and Tonic. The G&T is endlessly riffable and can be doctored to fit any palate or situation. Looking for a weak cocktail to sip all afternoon at the pool? G&T. How about one strong pre-dinner cocktail? G&T.
The article shares a lot of rules and ideas for making the perfect drink for any situation. Of note: the standard lime garnish isn’t just unimaginative, it can ruin a well-balanced G&T. Anything else goes: I like a grapefruit wheel and a big slice of cucumber.
I spent the past weekend at the Texas Coast. I am sunburned. Our Airbnb had a blender. I made this:
Frozen Gin and Tonic
Gin
Tonic syrup
Ice
Blend. Garnish with whatever you like. Take a photo. Enjoy.
NOTE: tonic syrup is available at liquor stores and online. It allows you to create frozen G&Ts and also customize the sweetness level when mixing traditional tonic drinks.
Five-Spice Steak
Summer of skirt steak rolls on.
Steak (about 1 pound)
1 1/2 teaspoons Chinese five-spice powder
1 teaspoon kosher salt
1/2 teaspoon freshly cracked black pepper
1 small red Thai/bird’s-eye chile pepper
2 teaspoons toasted sesame oil
1 clove garlic
1-inch piece fresh ginger root
1 tablespoon unseasoned rice vinegar
2 teaspoons tamari (may substitute low-sodium soy sauce if gluten is not an issue)
1 teaspoon raw cane sugar or light brown sugar
3 scallions
2 large handfuls cilantro leaves
Light grill. Season the meat all over with the five-spice powder, salt and pepper. Seed the chili pepper, then mince it. Use a brush to dab the toasted sesame oil evenly over the steak.
The garlic, ginger and chili pepper can be gathered together as you work: Mince the garlic. Peel, then mince the ginger root.
Grill the steak until it is nicely browned and the interior temperature registers 120 to 125 degrees on an instant-read thermometer (medium-rare). Transfer the meat to a plate to rest.
Heat a skillet for 2 minutes on medium-low, add some fat, then stir in the garlic mixture. As it cooks, combine the rice vinegar, tamari and sugar in a cup, then pour that mixture into the skillet, using a wooden spatula to dislodge any browned bits. Cook for about 1 minute, then scrape the contents of the skillet into a medium bowl. This is your sauce.
Mince the scallions (white and light-green parts) and chop the cilantro leaves; add half of each to the bowl of sauce.
Cut the steak into thin slices, piling them on a platter. Spoon some of the sauce over the top, then garnish with the remaining scallions and cilantro. Pass the remaining sauce at the table. Serve warm.
Tahini-Smothered Charred Cabbage
New ingredient alert. It’s tahini szn. Go buy a jar. Your steaks are done, the grill is still hot, so grill some cabbage. Check back next week for more tahini content.
1 medium head of green cabbage (about 2 lb.)
3 Tbsp. plus ¼ cup extra-virgin olive oil; plus more for drizzling (optional)
Kosher salt
1 garlic clove, finely grated
⅓ cup tahini
1 tsp. honey
½ tsp. ground cumin
1 lemon
½ cup very coarsely chopped dill
1 Tbsp. toasted black or white sesame seeds
Prepare grill for medium-high heat. Cut cabbage in half through core; cut each half into 3 wedges, keeping core intact. Drizzle with 3 Tbsp. oil and rub to coat; season all over with salt.
Grill cabbage until deeply charred on cut sides and a paring knife slides easily through center, 6–8 minutes per side. Transfer to a cutting board and let cool 5 minutes (this will allow the cabbage to soften further). Cut some wedges in half crosswise; leave the rest whole.
Combine garlic, tahini, honey, cumin, and ¼ cup oil in a medium bowl. Finely grate zest from lemon into bowl, then cut lemon in half and squeeze juice into bowl. Add a big pinch of salt and whisk until smooth. Whisking constantly, add 3–4 Tbsp. cold water; tahini sauce should be creamy but pourable.
Arrange cabbage wedges on a platter and spoon tahini sauce over. Scatter dill over cabbage, then sprinkle with sesame seeds. Drizzle a little oil over everything to finish.
Smashed Cucumber Salad with Hot Vinegar
This cold, refreshing salad is a cookout gamechanger.
5 mini seedless or Persian cucumbers or 1 small English hothouse cucumber (about 12 oz.)
Kosher salt
4 red or green Thai chiles, halved lengthwise keeping stem end intact, or 1 serrano chile, thinly sliced
2 garlic cloves, lightly smashed
½ cup unseasoned rice vinegar
2 Tbsp. fish sauce
1 Tbsp. sugar
Chopped unsalted or salted roasted peanuts (for serving)
Gently smash cucumbers with a rolling pin or the back of a heavy knife just to break open. Tear into irregular 2" pieces and place in a medium bowl; season lightly with salt. Let sit at least 5 minutes and up to 1 hour.
Meanwhile, whisk chiles, garlic, vinegar, fish sauce, and sugar in a medium bowl until sugar dissolves. Let sit while cucumbers macerate.
Drain cucumbers, discarding any liquid they have released. Add to bowl with dressing and toss several times to coat. Top with peanuts.
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